Worldwide box office is headed for a marginal decline of 3% in 2024, a setback that follows three years of recovery from a pandemic era low in 2020.
Gower Street Analytics, a distribution and exhibition industry consultancy, forecasts that worldwide box office this year will aggregate at $32.3 billion, down by more than $1 billion from the $33.9 billion earned in 2023.
“A $32.3 billion global box office in 2024 would represent an approximate 5% decrease year-on-year (a 3% decrease at current exchange rates) from 2023. The 2024 revised estimate is 18% lower than an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019),” Gower Street said.
The forecast comes on the eve of CinemaCon, the annual National Association of Theater Owners convention, being held in Las Vegas April 8-11.
While Gower Street’s forecast is for a marginal decline, it actually represents a more than $1 billion improvement on its previous $31.5 million forecast for 2024. And it would have been higher still, but for the strength of the US dollar against other currencies, which shrinks the value of international revenues when expressed in American monetary terms.
Changes to the film releasing calendar, which is still feeling the effect of the 2023 Hollywood writers and actors strikes, have also affected first quarter actual receipts and may continue to impact the forecasts.
“Actuals for Q1 were 1% ahead of our projections in the North American [aka ‘domestic’] market and in China. For the international market (excluding China) actuals were 11% ahead of our estimates,” the firm said.
Overall, our projection has seen only modest gains of approximately $200 million in the domestic market, $550 million (in US$ terms) in the international market (exc. China) and remained relatively static for China. China is the only one of the three key markets projected to see a year-on-year improvement,” Gower Street said.
Data from other sources, which may not therefore be directly comparable with Gower Street’s figures, shows first quarter box office in China to be significantly higher than in North America. At the end of March, year-to-date box office in China was $2.32 billion according to consultancy firm Artisan Gateway. That compared with $1.47 billion so far this year in North America, according to ComScore.
