Oscar voters tend to be big-screen enthusiasts. But the reality is that not every awards contender will be seen in the cinema — and that’s especially true during the holiday season, when all the family commitments, shopping and big meals can turn even a movie theater evangelist like Christopher Nolan into a couch potato.
The allure of a theater’s dim, cool ambience and sharing the experience with strangers is what many filmmakers envision for their creations. Yet, awards voters are increasingly turning to living-room setups — big-screen TVs and sleek sound systems — to bring the cinematic thrill home. With awards bodies like AMPAS and BAFTA no longer allowing physical media, the days of screener piles being stuffed into the suitcase are mostly over. Digital viewing portals are now available for members of all groups. So which of this season’s contenders will play well in the home, and which ones will lose that special something without all the bells and whistles?
Read:PvNew’sAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
Greta Gerwig’s witty meta-comedy “Barbie” and Blitz Bazawule’s musically vibrant take on “The Color Purple” are crowd-pleasers that can still captivate audiences who don’t make the pilgrimage to the local AMC. With the holidays rolling in, Alexander Payne’s nostalgic “The Holdovers,” set during a Vietnam-era Christmas break, might strike a chord with older viewers who lived through those turbulent times. (Plus ça change.)
However, there’s always a difference of opinion about contenders. Some grip you from start to finish; others, despite critical acclaim, might lose viewers to any number of man-made distractions. Jonathan Glazer’s “The Zone of Interest,” chronicling a family outside Auschwitz during the Holocaust, is a profound examination of the banality of evil, yet its understated storytelling risks losing its audience midway. Could voters zone out in moments of boredom instead of recognizing Glazer’s point: Some of history’s most appalling monsters masked their unspeakable cruelty in a facade of domestic torpor. “It was something I respected, but I think it belongs in a museum,” one Oscar voter tells PvNew of “The Zone of Interest.”
Other films, despite their cinematic prowess, pose their own challenges. Take Emerald Fennell’s “Saltburn,” which features more than one eyebrow-raising scene. Will more prudish viewers really want to see Barry Keoghan slurp Jacob Elordi’s bathwater or hump a freshly made grave as a post-Christmas dinner treat?
And while technical marvels like Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” or the visually stunning “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” are available for home viewing, do they lose their magic without theater-quality sound? Even Netflix, which helped usher in the streaming era, may suffer. There’s a reason it’s simultaneously showing Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” in Dolby Atmos in any theater that has that sound-enhancing capability.
Home entertainment systems have improved immeasurably. But the sad truth is that many voters will see Oscar contenders on screens barely bigger than an iPhone. While traveling to visit family or for an exotic getaway, some industry folks will take advantage of their in-flight entertainment options — which include quite a few movies eligible for prizes.
I wonder how “Oppenheimer” plays on a plane?
Read the latest prediction updates below and go to the individual category pages to see where the films and performances rank. Projected winners are marked with red asterisks (***).
Current Oscars Tracking
(Dec. 22, 2023)
Best Picture
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Past Lives” (A24)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Director
Greta Gerwig — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Jonathan Glazer — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
Alexander Payne — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix) ***
Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)
Margot Robbie — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Ryan Gosling — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
Charles Melton — “May December” (Netflix)
Mark Ruffalo — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Sandra Hüller — “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) ***
Original Screenplay
“Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“May December” (Netflix)
“Past Lives” (A24)
Adapted Screenplay
“All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
“American Fiction” (MGM) ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Animated Feature
“The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
“Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)
“Elemental” (Pixar)
“Robot Dreams” (Neon)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Production Design
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) ***
Cinematography
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Costume Design
“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Film Editing
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Golda” (Bleecker Street)
“The Last Voyage of the Demeter” (Universal Pictures)
“Maestro” (Netflix) ***
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
“Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
Sound
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Ferrari” (Neon)
“Maestro” (Netflix)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
“The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Visual Effects
“The Creator” (20th Century Studios)
“Godzilla: Minus One” (Toho)
“Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire” (Netflix)
“Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) ***
Original Score
“American Fiction” (MGM)
“Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
“Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) ***
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
Original Song
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony” (Netflix)
“Dance the Night” from “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
“Road to Freedom” from “Rustin” (Netflix)
documentary Feature
“20 Days in Mariupol” (PBS)
“American Symphony” (Netflix) ***
“Apolonia, Apolonia” (CAT & Docs)
“Beyond Utopia” (Roadside Attractions)
“Four Daughters” (Kino Lorber)
International Feature
“Fallen Leaves” from Finland (Mubi)
“The Mother of All Lies” from Moroco (Arizona Distribution)
“Society of the Snow” from Spain (Netflix)
“The Taste of Things” from France (IFC Films)
“The Zone of Interest” from U.K. (A24) ***
Animated Short
“27” (ARTE Mediathek)
“Eeva” (Miyu Distribution)
“Letter to Pig” (Miyu Distribution)
“once Upon a Studio” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
“Pete” (The Criterion Channel)
documentary Short
“The ABCs of Book Banning” (MTV documentary Films/Paramount+)
“The Barber of Little Rock” (The New Yorker)
“Between Earth and Sky” (POV Shorts)
“Deciding Vote” (The New Yorker)
“The Last Repair Shop” (L.A. Times Studios/Searchlight Pictures) ***
Live Action Short
“The After” (Netflix)
“The Anne Frank Gift Shop” (Reboot Studios)
“The Shepherd” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“A Strange Way of Life” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (Netflix)
Top 3 Nomination Leaders Tracking (Film)
- “Barbie” — 14
- “Oppenheimer” — 13
- “Killers of the Flower Moon” — 10
Top 4 Nomination Leaders Tracking (Studios)
- Netflix — 17
- Warner Bros. — 15
- Universal Pictures — 14
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | documentARY FEATURE | INTERNATIonAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | documentARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
