Asia’s video industry is set to grow by an annual 2.6% over the next five years to reach $165 billion by 2028, says a new study from research and consultancy firm Media Partners Asia. That follows 5.5% growth in 2023.
The firm’s “Asia Pacific Video & Broadband Industry 2024” report spans a widely-defined cluster of free TV, pay-TV, SVOD, premium AVOD and user-generated content and social video in 14 Asia-Pacific countries and territories. Its chief finding is the insight behind the ongoing move away from TV to online, which the authors call a “secular shift.”
“Improved connectivity and rising connected TV penetration, combined with the growth of local creator economies, investment in premium local content as well as the wide availability of premium sports streaming, will continue to drive dollars and eyeballs online,” says MPA’s managing and executive director Vivek Couto.
China remains the region’s largest and most regulated video market, generating $64 billion in revenue in 2023.
Excluding China, the largest markets in 2023 were Japan ($32 billion), India ($13 billion), Korea ($12 billion) and Australia ($9.5 billion), followed by Taiwan and Indonesia, both at around US$3 billion.
The firm’s growth projections indicate that total APAC video industry revenues will expand at a compound average growth rate of 2.6% between 2023-28 to reach $165 billion by 2028. China will grow at a forecast 1.7% to reach $70 billion by 2028. The growth forecast for the non-China portion is 3.3%, rising to $95 billion by 2028.
By sector, the region’s online video component is projected to grow at 6.7% CAGR to reach $78.5 billion by 2028. Outside of China, the forecast growth rate is 9.2%, to reach $46 billion by the same date. Asia’s TV industry revenues, including advertising and subscriptions, are forecast to marginally contract at -0.4% CAGR between 2023-28 to reach $86.5 billion by 2028. Outside China, the downtrend is fractionally steeper at -1% CAGR to $49 billion by 2028. Within that bigger picture, some territories, notably India, Japan, Korea and Indonesia, may still exhibit net growth, but there are “significant downside” risks in TV advertising in many of the same territories.
While TV may not be the force that it once was, ad-supported online models (social video, FAST and AVOD) mean that advertising is expected to grow in importance. “Advertising contributed 51% to online video revenues in 2023. Its contribution is projected to grow to 54% by 2028 and to 63% in APAC ex-China (vs 58% in 2023),” says the report.
According to MPA, eight companies accounted for an aggregate 65% share of the APAC online video revenue business in 2023: Amazon Prime Video, ByteDance (including TikTok), Disney, Google-owned YouTube, iQiyi, meta (video), Netflix and Tencent.
Outside of China, the company identifies companies with significant growth potential as including Jio Cinema in India; Zee and Sony, where a merger is still pending, in India; Foxtel’s Kayo and Nine’s SVOD and broadcaster-VOD platforms in Australia; TVer and U-Next in Japan; Tving in Korea; Vidio in Indonesia; and Viu across Southeast Asia.
“New investments made by [strategic investors] and private equity in the online video sector in China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia are helping local and regional companies compete. The online video sector is also starting to rationalize with price increases in the SVOD category along with disciplined content and marketing investment, the introduction of ad tiers, new strategies to drive monetization and the start of local market consolidation in Korea, Japan and India,” says the report.
Looking back at 2023, MPA says: “The APAC video industry grew by 5.5% in 2023 as total revenue reached approximately $145 billion. The 2023 performance was driven by a 13% growth in online video sector sales to $57 billion, partially offset by less than 1% growth in the TV revenue pie to $88 billion.
“Excluding China, the APAC video industry grew by 3.2% in 2023 with revenue reaching $81 billion, driven by a 13% increase in online video sales to $30 billion while TV declined by 2% to $51 billion.
“online SVOD grew 15% in 2023 to reach $28 billion or 12% ex-China to $12 billion while the AVOD pie grew 11% to $29 billion, or 13% ex-China to US$17 billion. UGC and social video continues to dominate the AVOD category with 80% share, while premium AVOD had a 20% share in 2023. Pay-TV subscription fees showed marginally below flat growth in APAC ex-China, with revenue declines in important markets such as India and Japan while almost every market in Southeast Asia contracted.
“Pay-TV advertising grew in India but was decimated in Korea. Free TV advertising was down 2% in 2023 across APAC ex-China with significant declines in Australia, Indonesia and Korea.”
