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Oscars: Best Actor – Paul Giamatti Leads the Race, but Keep Close Eye on SAG to Determine Ultimate Victor

2024-03-03 09:1326010
Oscars: Best Actor – Paul Giamatti Leads the Race, but Keep Close Eye on SAG to Determine Ultimate Victor

PvNewAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by PvNew senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actor

Oscars: Best Actor – Paul Giamatti Leads the Race, but Keep Close Eye on SAG to Determine Ultimate Victor
MGM / Orion

Weekly Commentary (Updated Feb. 1, 2024): The SAG Awards will be even more critical this year as the guild recognizes all five Oscar-nominated leading men. This could either put it to bed for Paul Giamatti for his work as a cranky teacher in “The Holdovers,” or it could be the place Cillian Murphy shows that “Oppenheimer” isn’t just winning best picture; it’s translating a majority of its 13 nominations into wins.

I am tracking Jeffrey Wright for his inaugural “American Fiction” nomination as a potential SAG spoiler. When respected actors are invited to the party, a groundswell of support can bubble to the top, and as a journeyman actor for multiple decades who haven’t received the list of roles and accolades he deserved, this could be an opportunity to reward him accordingly (and his film).

BAFTA, where Wright isn’t nominated, could be another tide-changer for Bradley Cooper to turn it around for “Maestro” or potentially even Colman Domingo in “Rustin.” However, Murphy has a home-field advantage and could edge out his competitors.

Read:PvNew’sAwards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.


And the Nominees Are:


  1. Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  2. Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  3. Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction” (MGM)
  4. Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix)
  5. Colman Domingo — “Rustin” (Netflix)

Eligiblities From 2023 (Alphabetized by Studio)**


2022 category winner: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | documentARY FEATURE | INTERNATIonAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | documentARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

about the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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